evaluate talent
The role of the expert
What relation to the price? Can we quantify ?
Roger de Piles (1635-1709)
• " ; clumsy attempt "or" product of the authentically French spirit "(Schlosser);
• "erroneous educational reasons" (Venturi),
• "aberration notorious" (Gombrich);
• "extravagant idea" or "scholastic pedantry" (Bazin).
... But taken seriously in the 18th century
Hume and the "test of time"
From the standard and taste
"The same Homer who pleased at Athens and Rome two thousand years ago is still admired in Paris and London. All changes of climate, government, religion and language have not come to obscure his glory. Authority or prejudice may well give a temporary vogue to a bad poet, or a bad speaker, but his reputation will never be lasting or widespread. "
"It appears that, in the middle of the variety and caprice of taste, there are some general principles of approbation or blame which a careful eye can find influence in all operations of the mind. "
A famous case
JL Ernest Meissonier and academic
Murakami Will he become famous?
In criminology: the work of Bertillon
decorative arts: a experimental aesthetics
Mathematical analysis and econometrics
An important area of research in cultural economics
Econométrie
Econometrics is concerned with the tasks of developing and applying quantitive or statistical methods to the study and elucidation of economic principles.
Econometrics combines economic theory with statistics to analyze and test economic relationships.
Theoretical econometrics considers questions about the statistical properties of estimators and tests, while applied econometrics is concerned with the application of econometric methods to assess economic theories. (Wikipedia (FR))
type uses
• Linking economic theory and verification empirical (not to experiment)
• Check independence or correlation among several variables
• determine a relationship between one or more variables (linear and nonlinear)
• Predict and calculate based on the results
è Calculate the value of options, predict the impact of economic policies
Ex uses cultural
• Expertise: estimating the cost of a table (DB: market art) as a function of its size, renowned artist, genre, etc..
• correlation between the balance of painters (Battery), the size of its records and Abstract the Royal Collection
• Response of a museum about the importance of its mission according to its size, its budget, attendance, etc..
Basic questions section
• Ruling experts and success Financial cultural product Are they related?
• Over time ( test of time ), trial experts is he still relevant?
Cinema
Oscars, Golden Globes, etc..
Three lists recent to judge the "quality"
Failing box office: Paid by theaters rentals
A central problem
• Find relevant information
- ; Check sources
- find enough data
- for a sufficiently long period
- comparable data
• Ex: take account of inflation and number of copies ( rentals ): ranking where the first of each year is 100.
è A principle similar to indicators
Three relations
• Relationship of public success (box office) Oscar
• Relationship of box office success to persistence, in time, quality
• relation to the success of box office at the Oscars and the persistence of current quality
Statistics
• The correlation : the intensity of the relationship that can exist between two variables
• Equation 1
- ; box office hits =
- Explanatory Variables: Oscar winners and nominees
- Very significant
• Equation 2
- box office hits =
- Explanatory variables: presence in one, two or three current lists of the best films
- Relatively significant
• Equation 3
- box office success =
- Explanatory Variables: Oscar winners and nominees, presence in one, two or three lists
- ; Significant for an Oscar, at least for the appointment or presence in the three lists, not for the presence in a list
- The Fisher test, or test F, is a statistical hypothesis test that tests the equality of two variances (a measure characterizing the dispersion of a distribution or a sample )
Some simple statistics
• 65% of films that appear in one of three lists received an Oscar, but only 26% appear in all three lists.
• better than Golden Globes, National Board of Review or NY Film Critics Circles
• Problem Oscars: one year
The book
Booker Prize: a prize English, established in 1969, 3 5 nominees, one or two elected
indicators of success and quality
• Number editions during the 10 years
• Explanatory variables: age of the author and nb books before price
• Quality: nb editions between 11 and 20 years after
• Nb other books written after
Three relationships
• The book's success as a function of his appointment or his victory
• The variation of the book's success (or victory appointment) during the first ten years
• ; The success of the author's time
Statistics
• ; The correlation : the intensity of the relationship that can exist between two variables
• Equation 1
- success of the book (nb ed.) =
- Explanatory Variables: winners and nominees price
- insignificant
• Equation 2
- success of the book (nb ed.) =
- Explanatory Variables: Number of years since appointment, all books, only for the winners
- Negatively correlated, but significant
• Equation 3
- ; success of the book (nb ed.) =
- Explanatory Variables: winners and nominees price, number of years since appointment, number of editions from 11 to 20 years after the price, number of titles published prior to appointment, nb titles after.
- Relatively few significant
è little difference between the nominees and winners
The Queen Elisabeth Music Competition
The principle of competition
• A very prestigious competition (piano, but violin, vocals)
• A characteristic study of a contemporary concerto unknown for a week, presented by the 12 candidates selected.
• Two candidates each night, drawn at random for one week deliberation at the end of the week.
A big surprise!
Ginsburgh and Van Ours show that the sequence of influence the final choice!
• First spend less
• The first of two passes less
è The jury should he "be the ear?
Database and indicators of success
• 132 finalists for the 11 competitions
• Indicators of success
- presence of disks in three catalogs (1-3)
- Rating (0-4) by a panel of 12 contemporary criticism: scale from 0 to 48
• Explanatory factors and other data: gender, nationality, age, time since the competition order performance, ranking in the final contest
Statistics
• The method of least squares, to compare experimental data (possible measurement errors) to a mathematical model intended to describe the data.
• Tobit and Probit models : econometric models used to describe a relationship between a dependent variable and independent variable.
• The dependent variable: success; Independent ranking in the competition
As grading is also dependent on the passage at the beginning or the end of the competition, beginning or end of the evening, Sex (0 or 1)
è order really affect the success
Conclusions
• films with award (Oscar) è box office success
• Not the case of books (bestsellers)
• ; A different procedure for music competitions,
è For All Three: Price (award) and distinctions have an impact on the success
è Over time, the quality is judged differently: the price (award) is not a good indicator of talent
è ; critics are fallible, but their reputation is not affected
• methods based on complex the choice of indicators, so the data collection.
• assumptions (the model rules of statistics, the choice of indicators) to keep always in mind.
• Prestige econometrics
• ; Facility and risks of working with numbers ...
Next Course:
Maurice Levy and Jean-Pierre Jouyet The intangible economy , tomorrow's growth , 2006.
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